Final day of Royal Ascot and possibly the most difficult so far in identifying profitable bets. For the past two days there has been a distinct bias in favour of the far rail in the straight course races and with half the card today not needing to go round corners, the first decision is whether or not to keep the faith with low numbers.
The only thing that seems certain is that you don’t want to come down the middle of the track, so the jocks on some horses will have a decision to make from the get go.
In the first, yesterday the winner was drawn 13 but came straight over to the far side rail and managed to hold off our selection Alpha Centauri by a neck. Our high number selection Take Me With You won his side comfortably to land the each way bet at 20-1, but had absolutely no chance with the far side and was beaten 3 lengths.
On balance, we will stick to low numbers having the edge and sorry in advance if it doesn’t turn out that way.
Feature race at 4.20 is the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes over the 6 furlongs, with 19 runners due to go to post. Short priced favourite is Henry Candy’s Limato, with Ryan Moore the man who has to decide what to do from stall 15. An impressive winner of the July Cup last season, we are assured that Limato is as good as ever, despite a disappointing display in Meydan when last seen in March. However, at a skinny 5-2 this can’t be value and best to look elsewhere.
The winner of the Meydan race was the French trained The Right Man, which has been aimed at this contest ever since and, despite being a bit short of fast ground form, represents a sound each way pick from stall 2 at 25-1.
The Tin Man from the adjoining stall (3) is our other recommendation for this race. Said to need soft ground, this 5-y-o gelding’s record on Good to Firm is 3 from 4 and it is also a course and distance Group 1 winner after taking the British Champions Sprint last October. At 6-1 (e/w) you should get a run for your hard-earned.
The other big sprint on the card is the Wokingham Stakes at 5.00 and, interestingly given the draw comments above, the first four in the betting are drawn 28, 23, 21 and 26.
Keeping the faith, we recommend each way bets on Edward Lewis (7) at 16-1, Steady Pace (6) at 20-1 and Amazour (2) at 18-1.
It’s not difficult to believe that the favourites will win the Listed Chesham Stakes at 2.30 and the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at 3.40, so a double on Sepember at 5-4 and Dartmouth at 9-4 could pay a decent divi.
That just leaves the two distance races and anyone seeing Khairaat win his comeback race at Chester last month will not want to oppose him today in the Wolferton Handicap at 3.05, despite the best efforts of the handicapper. At 9-2, this is a strong e/w recommendation.
The whole shooting match finishes with the Queen Alexandra Stakes at 5.35 over 2m 51/2f and sees Thomas Hobson attempt to emulate his erstwhile stable companion Simenon in following up its Ascot Stakes victory on Tuesday. That was a handicap and this isn’t, so we prefer a small e/w bet on Montaly at 12-1.
I’m now going for a lie down.