WEATHER TO BET OR NOT

WEATHER TO BET OR NOT
August 3, 2017 Lee Bolingbroke

The elements conspired to ruin (pretty much) Day 2 of ‘GloriousGoodwood and, following the biblical events of yesterday, today we are threatened with gale force winds – happy days.

At least we are reasonably certain of the underfoot conditions and despite the best efforts of the Clerk of the Course to call it ‘soft’, it would be called ‘heavy’ by anyone else.

Highlight of Day 3 at 3.35 is the Qatar Nassau Stakes, reduced to just 6 participants and having AO’B’s Winter as the 11-8 jolly.

Winner of the English and Irish Guineas, this daughter of Galileo demolished the field in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, thrashing stablemate Roly Poly, who has gone on to win two Group 1s of her own.

So what’s not to like?

Unproven over the trip and untested on the ground is the simple answer, although her trainer is oozing confidence about both imponderables. There is little doubt that this high class filly might indeed win, but 11-8 is unattractive.

3-y-os have an excellent record in this race, so we are going to take a chance on the Charlie Appleby trained Sobetsu to bounce back from a disappointing run in The Oaks. First time out this season, Sobetsu won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary on soft ground at Deauville, before finishing a well beaten 8th at Epsom. It could simply be that she didn’t stay or didn’t act on the track (or both) and with trip and ground in her favour today, we recommend a win bet at 6-1.

The Group 2 Richmond Stakes at 3.00 sees the reappearance of Headway, who just failed to land our 33-1 recommendation at Royal Ascot, going down by a head in the Coventry Stakes. Very different conditions apply today, though, which is probably why he is third in behind favourite Cardsharp. Mark Johnston’s charge carries a penalty for his last time out victory in the July Stakes, which may be his undoing.

We suggest an e/w bet (1-2) on Brian Meehan’s Barraquero at an attractive 13-2.

After finishing 3rd to Tuesday’s impressive winner Expert Eye on debut, this colt destroyed a fair field in a Chepstow novice event and, although this is a big step up in class, he may well be up to it, with Will Buick up top.

The other Group race on the card is the Market Insurance Fillies Stakes at 2.25 and we have a strong selection here in Endless Time, trained by Charlie Appleby. This 5-y-o is a genuine Group 1 performer running in a Group 3 and every drop of rain that fell yesterday increased her chances. Last seen in the Ascot Gold Cup (wrong trip, wrong ground) she has the assistance of that man Buick, plus the addition of cheekpieces to aid concentration and, at 11-4, this should be your main bet of the day.

With 10 runners still standing their ground, we also recommend a small each way investment in Dawn Horizons at 14-1.

The programme begins at 1.50 with the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap over 10 furlongs and, without wishing to sound repetitive, we suggest an each way bet on Charlie Appleby’s Hold Sway at 7-1. Carrying less weight than previously owing to the attentions of the vet, it (rather than ‘he’) is well drawn, will have no fears about the going and has SDS to do the shoving.

The remainder of the card tails off disappointingly, so we will leave it there.

Summary:

Subetsu 3.35 win @ 6-1
Barraquero 3.00 e/w @ 13-2
Endless Time 2.25 Win @ 11-4
Desert Horizons 2.25 e/w @ 14-1
Hold Sway 1.50 e/w @ 7-1

 

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